Combining Data‐Driven and Theory‐Driven Models for Causality Analysis in Sociocultural Systems

News Article Icon

Sliva, A.1, Neal Reilly, S.1, Blumstein, D.1, and Pierce, G.2 In Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems, Paul K. Davis, Angela O’Mahony, and Jonathan Pfautz (Eds) To better understand and describe sociocultural systems, it is critical that we can create, analyze, and validate social, political, and economic models that capture causal and predictive dynamics. Causality is, however, notoriously difficult […]

Modeling Causality in Sociocultural Systems using Ensemble Methods

Sliva, A., Neal Reilly, S., Blumstein, D., Hookway, S., and Chamberlain, J. Presented at the 7th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2016), Orlando, FL (July 2016) Awarded Best Paper at AHFE’s Cross-Cultural Decision-Making Conference When planning operations or designing policy interventions, military decision-makers and policy experts must have an understanding of the world […]

A Computational Toolset for Socio-Cultural Data Exploration, Model Refinement, and Model Validation

Neal Reilly, S., Pfeffer, A., Barnett, J., Chamberlain, J., and Casstevens, R. Proceedings of Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Focus 2011, Chantilly, VA (February 2011) Accurate computational models of social and cultural behavior have the potential to dramatically improve strategic planning by providing decision makers with insights into the behavior of adversaries and contested populations. The […]

Trust and Reliance in Human Socio-Cultural Behavior Models

Farry, M., Pfautz, J., Carlson, E., and Koelle, D. Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics, Miami, FL (2010) Human socio-cultural behavior (HSCB) modeling technologies are gaining traction in operational communities as a means to analyze and predict human behavior at various scales. The National Research Council’s study on behavior modeling and […]