Graphical Models as Boundary Objects for Collaborative Operations Research

Farry, M.1, Stark, R.2, and Roth, E.3 Presented at the 57th Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (HFES), San Diego, California, (October 2013) To address issues in enterprise-level systems, operations research (OR) analysts need to be able to understand, codify, and communicate various aspects of problems, such as relevant operating conditions and their […]

Generating Anonymous Social Networks for Analysis Tool Development

Lofdahl, C. Proceedings of the 81.2 Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Symposium, Alexandria, VA, (June 2013) Social media use has exploded over the past decade and with it the availability of data that can provide insight into a range of behavioral questions. Social media data however is so voluminous, complex, and hard to interpet that it […]

Graphical Models as Boundary Objects for Collaborative Operations Research

Farry, M.1, Stark, R.2, and Roth, E.3 Presented at the 57th Annual Meeting of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (HFES), San Diego, California, (October 2013) To address issues in enterprise-level systems, operations research (OR) analysts need to be able to understand, codify, and communicate various aspects of problems, such as relevant operating conditions and their relationships. […]

Affect-Inspired Resource Management in Dynamic, Real-Time Environments

Neal Reilly, S., Fry, G., and Reposa, M. In A. Chella, R. Pirrone, R. Sorbello, and K. R. Johannsdottir (Eds.) Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, Volume 196. 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. (2013) We describe a novel affect-inspired mechanism to improve the performance of computational systems operating in dynamic environments. In particular, we designed a mechanism […]

Evaluating the Potential for Using Affect-Inspired Techniques to Manage Real-Time Systems

Neal Reilly, S., Fry, G., Guarino, S., Reposa, M., West, R., Costantini, R., and Johnston, J. International Journal of Machine Consciousness, Volume 05, Issue 02 (December 2013) We describe a novel affect-inspired mechanism to improve the performance of computational systems operating in dynamic environments. In particular, we designed a mechanism that is based on aspects […]

Towards Evaluating Computational Models of Intuitive Decision Making with fMRI Data

Niehaus, J., Romero, V., and Pfeffer, A. 15th International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, Las Vegas, NV (July 2013) A vast array of everyday tasks require individuals to use intuition to make decisions and act effectively, including civilian and military professional tasks such as those undertaken by firefighters, police, search and rescue, small unit leaders, and […]

A Temporal Database Forecasting Algebra

Parisi1, F., Sliva2, A., and Subrahmanian3, V. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, vol. 54, no. 7. (September 2013) Though forecasting methods are used in numerous fields, we have seen no work on providing a general theoretical framework to build forecast operators into temporal databases, producing an algebra that extends the relational algebra. In this paper, […]

Functional Probabilistic Programming

Pfeffer, A. Presented at the Commercial Users of Functional Programming workshop, affiliated with the International Conference on Functional Programming, Boston, MA. (September 2013) Probabilistic modeling is one of the most widely used approaches to machine learning (ML). In recent years, the number and variety of probabilistic models has increased dramatically. Currently, developing a new probabilistic […]

Declarative to Procedural Tutors: A Family of Cognitive Architecture-based Tutors

Ritter1, F., Yeh, K.1, Cohen, M.2, Weyhrauch, P.3, Kim, J.4, and Cao, C.5 Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRiMS), Ottawa, Canada (July 2013) We have created a tutoring architecture, D2P (Declarative to Procedural), based on ACT-R’s theory of knowledge and learning for declarative and procedural memory. D2P […]

Probabilistic Programming and the Democratization of AI

Ruttenberg, B. Presentation to the New England Artificial Intelligence Group, Cambridge, MA (September 2013) Probabilistic models form the foundation of modern machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI). However, building and reasoning on models that represent large and complex scenarios is a daunting task for even the most expert and experienced programmers. As a result, […]

Democratizing Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence: Probabilistic Programming with Scala

Ruttenberg, B. Introduction to Figaro, Presentation to Boston Area Scala Group, Cambridge, MA, (26 February, 2013) Probabilistic models form the foundation of modern ML and AI. However, building and using models that represent large and complex scenarios is a daunting task for even the most expert and experienced programmers. As a result, there has been significant effort […]

First-Order Open-Universe POMDPs: Formulation and Algorithms

Srivastava, S., Cheng, X., Russell, S., and Pfeffer, A. Techical Report UCB/EECS-2013-243, EECS Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA (December 2013) Interest in relational and first-order languages for probability models has grown rapidly in recent years, and with it the possibility of extending such languages to handle decision processes—both fully and partially observable. We examine […]

Trust Metrics and Results for Social Media Analysis

Stickgold, E., Lofdahl, C., and Farry, M. Presented at the The 2013 International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, & Prediction (SBP 2013), Washington, DC (April 2013) Social media has changed the information landscape for a variety of events including natural disasters, demonstrations, and violent crises. During these events, people use a variety of social media, […]

Trust Definitions and Metrics for Social Media Analysis

Stickgold, E., Lofdahl, C., and Farry, M. Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRiMS), Ottawa, Canada (July 2013) Social media has changed the information landscape for a variety of events including natural disasters, demonstrations, and violent crises. During these events, people use a variety of social media, such […]

An Analytical Signal Processing Workbench for Managing Mechanical System Health

Stouch, D., Ramesh, M., and Moore, T. Technology demonstration to be presented at the 2013 Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, New Orleans, LA (October 2013) Vehicles such as aircraft and submarines, and large facility hardware systems such as compressors, generators, and transformers, are comprised of thousands of complex and tightly integrated […]

Modeling Trust in Multi-Agent Systems

Stickgold, E., Mahoney, S., Pfautz, J., Campolongo, J., and Thomsen, E. Proceedings of the 22nd Annual Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRiMS), Ottawa, Canada (July 2013) In order to extract information from a complex, multi-agent situation, where hard facts are not readily known, it is necessary to determine how much trust a […]

Understanding Optimality in Multi-Objective ISR Mission Planning for Tactical UAVs

Stouch1, D., Johnson2, J., and Tweddale2,, S. Proceedings of the 81.2 Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Symposium, Alexandria, VA, (June 2013) The dependability, persistence, and versatility of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have made them indispensable assets for providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) over the battlefield. As larger constellations of heterogeneous, multi-purpose UAS are tasked […]

Supporting Tactical Intelligence Using Collaborative Environments and Social Networking

Wollocko, A., Farry, M., and R. Stark, R. Presented at the 2013 SPIE Defense, Security, and Sensing, Baltimore, MD (May 2013) Modern military environments place an increased emphasis on the collection and analysis of intelligence at the tactical level. The deployment of analytical tools at the tactical level helps support the warfighter’s need for rapid collection, […]

Framework for Assessing Cloud Trustworthiness

Wu, C. and Marotta, S. IEEE 6th International Conference on Cloud Computing, Santa Clara, CA, (July 2013) When applications or data reside in a public cloud, trustworthiness can be compromised due to lack of control over the underlying infrastructure. Most public cloud infrastructures cannot be instrumented or modified to independently verify data integrity. To support […]

Human Engineering Factors in Distributed and Net-Centric Fusion Systems

Bisantz, A., Jenkins, M., and Pfautz, J. With the recent proliferation of service-oriented architectures (SOA), cloud computing technologies, and distributed-interconnected systems, distributed fusion is taking on a larger role in a variety of applications—from environmental monitoring and crisis management to intelligent buildings and defense. Drawing on the work of leading experts around the world, Distributed Data […]

Perception of Meta-Information Representation: A Psychophysical Approach

Fortenbery1, N., Jenkins2, M., Bisantz1, A., D’Arcy1, J., Farry2, M., Nagy2, A., Roth4, E., Pfautz2, J., and and Thomas5, G. Presented at the 56th Annual Meetings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (HFES), Boston, MA (October 2012) Previous research has identified many effective methods to visualize different types of meta-information, or information qualifiers; however, these methods […]

Framing the Socio-cultural Context to Aid Course of Action Generation for Counterinsurgency

Farry, M., Stark, B., Mahoney, S., Carlson, E., and Koelle, D. 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) / 2nd International Conference on Cross-Cultural Decision Making (CCDM), San Francisco, CA (July 2012). Course of action (COA) generation is guided by the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), which is meant to guide warfighters through […]

Optimizing Infra-Red Sensor Performance for Multiple Unmanned Aircraft

Frankenstein1, S., Stouch3, D., and McGraw3, K. Proceedings of the 2012 Weather Impacts Decision Aids (WIDA) Workshop, Reno, NV, (March 2012) Weather has a significant effect on the dependability, versatility, and effectiveness of the unmanned aerial systems (UAS) that provide intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) over the battlefield. As larger constellations of heterogeneous, multi-purpose UAS are […]

Model Decomposition for Reprogrammable Adversaries

Guarino, S., Stickgold, E., Ho, R., Pfautz, J., and Mahoney, S. To appear in Proceedings from the 2012 International Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling Simulation (BRiMS), Amelia Island, FL (March 2012). While many military training simulators rely upon adversary behavior models, or agents, to provide effective training content, it is often difficult to update these models […]

Collaborative Geospatial Visualizations to Improve Sociocultural Understanding

Kierstead, M., and Koelle, D. Presented at the 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) San Francisco, CA (July 2012) To engage in successful information operations, commanders must have a comprehensive understanding of both the battlespace and the sociocultural context in which they operate. They are required to comprehend a variety of Political, Military, […]

Analyst-Centric Techniques for Understanding Heterogeneous Networks

Koelle, D., Thornton, W., Prue, B., and Pfautz, J. To appear in the Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE), San Francisco, CA (July 2012). Analysts’ ability to understand and reason about complex organizations is often constrained by the limitations inherent in network analysis techniques and tools. Such tools are typically […]

Affect-Inspired Resource Management in Dynamic, Real-time Environments

Neal Reilly1, S., Fry1, G., Reposa1, M., and West2, R. Presented at the Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures (BICA) 2012 conference in Palermo, Italy (October 2012). Computational systems, including operating systems and robotic control systems, manage multiple objectives with limited resources in dynamic, time-critical and dangerous environments. Humans have developed mechanisms to handle similar problems over millions […]

Towards a Computational Model of Narrative Persuasion: A Broad Perspective

Niehaus1, J., Romero1, V., Pfautz1, J., Neal Reilly1, S., Gerrig2, R., and Weyhrauch1, P. The Third Workshop on Computational Models of Narrative at the 2012 Language Resources and Evaluation Conference (LREC’2012), Istanbul, Turkey (May 2012). This paper presents a preliminary view on the elements of persuasive narratives from a computational perspective. We argue for a […]

Measuring the Operational Utility of HSCB modeling and Methods

Pfautz, J., Carlson, E., Prue, B., and Koelle, D. Presented at the 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) San Francisco, CA (July 2012) The HSCB modeling community has shown a increased commitment to ensuring that computational representations of human socio-cultural phenomenon can be scientifically validated. Yet the challenges of performing rigorous validation studies […]

Creating and Manipulating Probabilistic Programs with Figaro

Pfeffer, A. Presented at the 2nd International Workshop on Statistical Relational AI, Catalina Island, CA (August 2012). Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) allow probabilistic models to be represented using the power of programming languages and general-purpose reasoning algorithms to be applied to new applications. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic programming in which the program is represented […]

Improving the Decision Making Abilities of Small Unit Leaders

Popp, R. (Co-Chair), Williams, M. (Co-Chair), Beling, P., Canon-Bowers, J., Grafton, S., Hackwood, S., Kolitz, S. … Zacharias, G. Committee on Improving the Decision Making Abilities of Small Unit Leaders; Naval Studies Board; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council For the past decade, the U.S. Marine Corps and its sister services have […]

Towards a Culturally-Rich Shared Narrative Corpus: Suggestions for the Inclusion of Culturally Diverse Narrative Genres

Romero, V., Niehaus, J., Weyhrauch, P., Pfautz, J., and Neal Reilly, S. The Third Workshop on Computational Models of Narrative at the 2012 Language Resources and Evaluation Conference (LREC’2012) Istanbul, Turkey (May 2012). This paper proposes that the inclusion of culturally diverse narrative genres should be an explicit goal when developing a shared narrative corpus. We […]

SSIM: Social Science Influence Modeling

Romero, V., Lofdahl, C., and Carlson, E. Proceedings from the 2012 IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support (CogSIMA 2012) New Orleans (March 2012) The inclusion of social science theories of persuasion can improve influence operators’ ability to predict the effects of influence campaigns. However, providing operators with a means to […]

First-Order Models for POMDPs

Srivastava1, S., Russell1, S., and Pfeffer2, A. Presented at the 2nd International Workshop on Statistical Relational AI, Catalina Island, CA (August 2012). Interest in relational and first-order languages for probability models has grown rapidly in recent years, and with it the possibility of extending such languages to handle decision processes–both fully and partially observable. We examine the […]

Mixed-Initiative Data Mining With Bayesian Networks

Stark, R., Farry, M, and Pfautz, J. Proceedings from the 2012 IEEE Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support (CogSIMA), New Orleans, LA (March 2012). Complex information systems make a wide variety of data types available, but users may find it difficult to obtain insight when inspecting those data sets. This need has […]

Development of Dynamic Visual Artifacts for Resilient Human-Automation Collaboration

Stark, R., Voshell, S., Mahoney, S., and Farry, M. Presented at the 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) San Francisco, CA (July 2012) Prevalence of recent “Big Data” technologies such as cloud computing, data warehousing, and enterprise analytics continue to increase our powers to collect, transmit, and transform data across an increasing number […]

Modeling Resilient Submarine Decision Making

Stark1, R., Farry1, M, Thornton1, W., Wollocko1, A., Woods2, D., and Morison2, A. To appear in Proceedings from the 2012 International Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling Simulation (BRiMS), Amelia Island, FL (March 2012). Decision making, especially in high pressure environments such as submarines, is dependent on the use of a large amount of information. To aid […]

Visualizing Large Scale Patterns and Anomalies in Geospatial Data

Stark1, R., Wollocko1, A., Borys2, M., Kierstead3, M., and Farry1, M. Presented at VisWeek 2012, Seattle, WA (October 2012) The Charles River Analytics solution to the VAST 2012 Mini-Challenge 1 quickly gives a user insight into the overall health of a large computer network across the entire globe while simultaneously highlighting anomalies in the data that could […]

Visualizations and Interaction Methods for Resilient Submarine Decision Support

Stark1, R., Woods2, D., Farry1, M., Morison2, A., Thornton1, W., and Wollocko1, A. Presented at the 56th Annual Meetings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society (HFES), Boston, MA (October 2012) Submarine commanders must make decisions rapidly to carry out increasingly complex missions. However, the rate of information delivery has outpaced the capacity of the command and […]

Discovering the Support Requirements for Geospatial Socio-cultural Intelligence Analysis and Synthesis

Voshell1, M., Roth2, E., Mahoney1, S., Nolet1, S., Farry1, M., and Prue1, B. 4th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) / 2nd International Conference on Cross-Cultural Decision Making (CCDM), San Francisco, CA (July 2012). While the benefits of collecting and understanding historical socio-cultural information have been widely accepted, existing software tools to support […]

Designing Visualizations of HSCB Models to Foster Appropriate Trust

Farry, M., Pfautz, J., Koelle, D., and Carlson, E. Proceedings of Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Focus 2011, Chantilly, VA (February 2011) Human socio-cultural behavior (HSCB) models are proliferating as a means to examine and reason about human behavior across many environments and for many different purposes. Prior work has identified issues surrounding operator trust in […]

Performance, Trust, and Decision Support

Gorman, J. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Infotech@Aerospace, St. Louis, MO (March 2011) Intelligent systems increase a decision maker’s ability to analyze and make sense of uncertain conditions and imprecise observations, however these systems are challenging to formally validate and verify. Formal assessments are challenging to conduct and performance assessment results are difficult to relate […]

Predicting the Effectiveness of SAR Imagery for Target Detection

Gutchess1, D., Irvine2, J., Young2, M., and Snorrason1, M. Proceedings of SPIE Defense & Security, Orlando, FL (April 2011) We present an image quality metric and prediction model for Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery that addresses automated information extraction and exploitation by imagery analysts. This effort drarws on our team’s direct experience with the development of the Radar […]

Modeling and Simulation for Comprehensive Operations

Lofdahl, C. INFORMS Northeastern Conference, Amherst, MA (May 2011) Simulations are a natural way to deal with the complexities of international interventions. While many social system simulations have been created, comparatively few have informed actual operations. This paper discusses the gaps in present models and the postulates requirements for simulations that might better inform operations. For […]

Strategic Roadmap for Human Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Science and Technology

MacMillan1, J., Zacharias2, G., Freeman1, J., and Bullock2, B.   Proceedings of Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Focus 2011, Chantilly, VA (February 2011) The Strategic Roadmap summarizes the most critical research needs in developing models of human, social, cultural, and behavioral (HSCB) phenomena to support planning, analysis, decision making, and training for the Department of Defense. […]

A Semi-Automated Interpretation Tool for Socio-Cultural Data Collection

Mahoney1, S., Pfautz2, J., Campolongo1, J., and Thomsen2, E. Proceedings of Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Focus 2011, Chantilly, VA (February 2011) Despite an increased emphasis on understanding social and cultural phenomena as part of current military engagements, existing tools to support social network construction and analysis are only in limited use by those with most […]

A Computational Toolset for Socio-Cultural Data Exploration, Model Refinement, and Model Validation

Neal Reilly, S., Pfeffer, A., Barnett, J., Chamberlain, J., and Casstevens, R. Proceedings of Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Focus 2011, Chantilly, VA (February 2011) Accurate computational models of social and cultural behavior have the potential to dramatically improve strategic planning by providing decision makers with insights into the behavior of adversaries and contested populations. The […]

Advances in Automated Rapid Training of ATR Algorithms

McBride1, J., Eaton1, R., Irvine2, J., and Mills3, J. IEEE Conference on Applied Imagery Pattern Recognition (AIPR), Washington, DC (October, 2011). A major challenge for fielding an automated target recognition (ATR) system is training the algorithm to perform well under realistic conditions. An ATR trained a priori on a general set of target imagery often lacks […]

Simulating Situational Awareness with User-Defined Operating Picture (UDOP) Devices Using Rules

Niehaus, J., and Neal Reilly, S. Proceedings of IEEE International Multi-Disciplinary Conference on Cognitive Methods in Situation Awareness and Decision Support (CogSIMA), Miami Beach, FL, (February 2011) The Network-Centric Warfare paradigm provides Ground Soldiers in the U.S. Army with large amounts of information needed to maintain situational awareness and perform successfully in the field. Current […]

Probabilistic Programming for Assessment of Capability and Capacity

Pfeffer, A. and Harrison, S. Proceedings of SPIE Defense & Security, Orlando, FL (April 2011) Answering the questions “What can the adversary do?” and “What will the adversary do?” are critical functions of intelligence analysis. These questions require processing many sources of information, which is currently performed manually by analysts, leading to missed opportunities and potential […]

Easing Behavior Authoring of Intelligent Entities for Training

Rosenberg, B., Furtak, M., Guarino, S., Harper, K., Metzger, M., Neal Reilly, S., Niehaus, J., and Weyhrauch, P. Proceedings of the 20th Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation (BRIMS), Sundance, UT (March 2011) This paper describes AgentWorks™, a system to help create rapid, affordable training experiences. We present a graphical authoring environment to enable […]

A Comparative Analysis Workbench for Evaluating ISR Collection Strategies

Stouch, D. Sensiac MSS National Symposium on Sensor & Data Fusion (NSSDF), Washington, DC (October 2011). The Air Force is constantly evolving to support current and future operations through the planning and execution of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. However, it is a challenge to determine the relative strengths and weaknesses of various collection […]

An Agile Acquisition Decision-support Workbench for Evaluating ISR Effectiveness

Stouch1, D., Champagne2, V., Mow1, C., Rosenberg1, B., and Serrin1, J. Proceedings of SPIE Defense & Security, Orlando, FL (April 2011) The U.S. Air Force is consistently evolving to support current and future operations through the planning and execution of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. However, it is a challenge to maintain a precise awareness […]

A Simulation-based Analysis Tool for Evaluating ISR Capabilities

Stouch1, D., Rosenberg1, B., Patrick2, J., and Champagne3, V. Poster presentation at MODSIM 2011, Virginia Beach, VA (October 2011). Aircraft platforms, sensor packages, and automated collection planning strategies to employ them in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconaissance) missions are constantly evolving. It is a challenge to determine the relative strengths and weaknesses of these new technologies. […]

Coevolving Collection Plans for UAS Constellations

Stouch, D., Zeidman, E., Callahan, W., and McGraw, K. Proceedings of the 2011 Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO), Dublin, Ireland (July 2011). We are developing a tool called SPARTEN (Spatially Produced Airspace Routes from Tactical Evolved Networks) that generates coordinated mission plans for constellations of unmanned aerial vehicles by allowing the mission planner to […]

Dynamic Replanning on Demand of UAS Constellations Performing ISR Missions

Stouch, D., Zeidman, E., Callahan, W., and McGraw, K. Proceedings of SPIE Defense & Security, Orlando, FL (April 2011) Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have proven themselves to be indispensable in providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) over the battlefield. Constellations of heterogeneous, multi-purpose UAS are being tasked to provide ISR in an unpredictable environment. This necessitates […]

Adapting Social Science To Influence Operations Planners (…And Not The Other Way Around)

Thornton, W., Carlson, E., and Pfautz, J. Proceedings of Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) Focus 2011, Chantilly, VA (February 2011) Effective planning for influence operations requires that planners understand the information environment in which they operate. Comprehensive understanding includes identification of entities that comprise the environment—pertinent groups, arguments, media, and issues in play—as well as awareness […]